Just three days after the surprise result in France, the people of the Netherlands have also decided to show the proposed EU Constitution the door, by an even bigger vote of about 63% against based on a turnout of about 62% (slightly lower than that of France). The result is perhaps less surprising than the one in France, given that the Dutch were generally expected to vote no to the constitution anyway, although I wouldn’t be surprised if the negative attitude and general worry about how much power Brussels appears to have was increased by the result across the channel.
Although the referendum in the Netherlands was intended as a consultative measure as opposed to a binding one, the Dutch Government had agreed that if the turnout was over 30% and the the majority of voters were against the constitution then they would accept that as being the consensus of the people and abide by the result. Whilst they could have got away with ratifying the constitution anyway with a lower margin or a poor turnout and could still technically introduce it now anyway if they liked, it would be political suicide to ignore such a decisive rejection.
The reasons for the Dutch rejection are along similar lines to the French ones in some places, and slightly different in others. Both countries appeared to be concerned about a loss of national identity caused by an expanding and more tightly integrated Europe, and disaffection with the current government was probably a factor for people of both nationalities as well (a mid-term vote on anything is, as I’ve mentioned before, often seen as a good chance to kick the current government in the teeth).
However, whereas the French are somewhat worried about losing their precious farming subsidies, the Dutch appear to be a bit annoyed that the French and German governments are getting away with flouting the budget rules and doing so well from the subsidies (if I recall correctly, the Netherlands is like Britain—one of the large net contributors to the EU). In theory they should be in favour of the constitution on this point, as it aims to liberalise the EU economic structure, but at the same time if someone offered you a chance to extend the influence of a body which you felt had already screwed you over, you would probably give it a wide berth. The Dutch have also had the Euro for a few years now and some people are complaining that prices have shot up as a result of its introduction so that might also spread animosity towards anything with the EU logo, regardless of whether it attempts to solve the current problems or not.
Whatever the reasons for the rejection, it’s a serious blow for the pro-constitution lobby and, combined with the French disapproval, it could be seen as the death knell for the controversial document. In theory the constitution must be ratified by all 25 EU members, but in practice I imagine they could have got away with one or two countries rejecting it, especially if one of them was Britain (let’s face it, we’re not really at the heart of the EU like the French and Germans are, and we could probably carry on whilst being on the touchline rather than the centre of the pitch). However, having two of the founding members of the union reject the proposed document really does make it look like the constitution might be dead in the water.
For the moment I’m cautiously optimistic about the constitution’s future (or rather, lack of one), and it’s beginning to look like we might not have a referendum on the issue if things keep going this way. Personally I’d like a chance to have my say on the matter, doubly so because a “no” vote would spell the end of His Royal Smugness’ Premiership, but I’d be just as happy to see the proposals dropped altogether. We shall have to see what happens in the next few weeks…